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The National Weather Service is facing a wave of staffing reductions that experts say could seriously compromise the accuracy of weather forecasts, delay life-saving alerts, and undermine long-term climate research. As the current situation stands, balloon launches are suspended, emergency forecast products are scaled back, and meteorologists report significant vacancies at local offices.
Recent layoffs and a hiring freeze have led to substantial vacancies across NWS offices. Nearly half of the 122 forecast offices report vacancy rates exceeding 20%, with some offices experiencing rates above 35%, particularly in regions prone to severe weather, such as the Midwest and Plains states.
These staffing shortages have already impacted operations. In March, the NWS office in Paducah, Kentucky, canceled its student volunteer program and suspended new arrangements for prospective meteorology students due to terminations. Offices in Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine, stopped launching weather balloons, a critical tool for collecting upper-atmosphere data essential for accurate weather forecasting.
"The thing about weather balloons is that they give you information you can't get any other way," D. James Baker, a former NOAA chief during the Clinton administration, said. "It's an absolutely essential piece of the forecasting system."
Due to staff shortages, Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota offices also ceased weather balloon launches. These reductions in data collection capabilities could compromise the accuracy of weather models and forecasts.
"We should not degrade our weather system by skipping balloon launches. Not only is this embarrassing for NOAA, the cessation of weather balloon launches will worsen America's weather forecasts," Ryan Maue, who was NOAA's chief scientist at the end of President Donald Trump's first term, wrote in an email.
The staffing cuts are part of broader reductions within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the NWS. Over 1,000 employees have been laid off or have resigned, with additional reductions anticipated. The Trump administration has proposed slashing NOAA's budget by 27%, eliminating nearly all climate-focused research. This includes a 74% cut to the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, a division responsible for critical climate modeling and data collection. The proposal also aims to terminate funding for NOAA's cooperative institutes and its 10 laboratories, which are heavily staffed by cooperative institute researchers.
Experts warn these cuts could have severe consequences for public safety. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles, stated the degradation of weather forecasting capabilities could have serious consequences.
"The job cuts are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters," he said.
Rep. Zoe Lofgren expressed concern that staffing reductions could jeopardize public safety by impairing the NWS's ability to provide timely and accurate weather warnings.
"Protect lives and property; that is NOAA's mission. Firing the employees that allow the agency to carry out that mission will bring about dire consequences. NOAA leadership will have to answer for every single unnecessary mishap and tragedy that could have possibly been avoided by a better-equipped workforce. These firings must be reversed," she said.
The long-term implications of these staffing cuts extend beyond immediate weather forecasting. The reduction in data collection hampers climate research efforts and the ability to monitor environmental changes over time. NOAA's climate-focused offices, including the Office of the Chief Scientist, are also being shuttered, affecting the agency's Earth observation efforts. Experts argue these cuts critically undermine national preparedness for climate extremes like hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and sea level rise.
"Make no mistake — the proposed policies are designed to deal a body blow to climate science, and associated climate policy, that will be felt long after this administration leaves the White House," Kim Cobb, a coral expert at Georgia Tech who receives some NOAA funding, said.
Experts have voiced concerns about the potential consequences of these cuts.
"Any weakening of our technological, scientific, and human capabilities related to weather and climate places American lives and property at risk," Marshall Shepherd, director of the atmospheric science program at the University of Georgia and a former president of the American Meteorological Society, said in a Forbes blog post.
As the nation approaches seasons characterized by severe weather, the diminished capacity of the NWS raises concerns about the effectiveness of emergency preparedness and response.
