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A decade after the Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, advocates warn that marriage equality faces renewed challenges as conservative lawmakers and judges position to bring the issue back before the nation's highest court.
The Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law, which played a key role in the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision, reports that the number of married same-sex couples has doubled since the ruling, while contributing billions to state and local economies. However, the institute's recent research reveals widespread concern among same-sex couples about the future stability of their marriage rights.
The concerns stem from recent actions and statements by conservative justices of the Supreme Court. Seven years after Obergefell, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and Justice Clarence Thomas explicitly called for the court to revisit Obergefell in a concurring opinion. Justice Samuel Alito has made similar statements, creating what legal observers describe as an invitation for new challenges to marriage equality.
The Williams Institute, which has studied LGBTQ+ issues for nearly 25 years, provided crucial data for the original Obergefell case. Justice Anthony Kennedy cited the institute's research on same-sex couples raising children in his majority opinion for the landmark decision.
"There were claims that allowing same-sex couples to marry would somehow devalue or diminish marriage for everyone, including different-sex couples," Brad Sears, a distinguished senior scholar of law and policy at the Williams Institute, said. "We found no indication of that. The national conversation around marriage may have actually revitalized marriage overall."
Recent studies by the Williams Institute document the positive effects of marriage equality. The 2024 study, "Perspectives on Marriage Equality," found that married same-sex couples reported improved security, greater life satisfaction, and closer relationships with their spouses following marriage.
The economic impact has been substantial, with same-sex marriages generating an estimated $5.9 billion for state and local economies and $432.2 million in state and local tax revenue since 2015.
Despite these benefits, political tensions around LGBTQ+ rights have intensified. President Donald Trump’s administration issued executive orders banning transgender women from women's sports, excluding transgender people from military service, and declaring federal recognition of only two sexes.
Sears noted key legal differences between marriage equality and abortion rights that could affect how the Supreme Court approaches potential challenges to Obergefell.
"Obergefell rests on both the due process clause and the equal protection clause," he said. "Roe was based squarely in privacy rights under due process. There's room for the court to say, 'This is different.'"
The concept of legal reliance also distinguishes marriage from abortion rights, according to Sears. Marriage creates binding legal, financial, and familial commitments that extend beyond the couple to include families, friends, and business relationships.
"People start living together in anticipation that one day they will get married," Sears said. "They start commingling resources. Eventually, they have a wedding. Often, people's families and friends help contribute to the wedding, and there are a lot of people relying on the fact that they are getting married."
Public opinion polling continues to show majority support for same-sex marriage, though some demographic groups have shown slight decreases in recent years. This sustained support contrasts with the more divided public opinion on transgender rights.
Recent Supreme Court decisions have already affected LGBTQ+ communities beyond marriage. The court upheld Tennessee's law banning access to gender-affirming care for transgender youth, affecting an estimated 112,400 transgender youth ages 13-17 living in Tennessee and 24 other states with similar restrictions.
Williams Institute research indicates that approximately 1.6 million people ages 13 and older in the U.S. identify as transgender. The patchwork of state laws governing transgender rights mirrors the situation same-sex couples faced before Obergefell, forcing some families to travel across state lines for medical care or legal recognition.
The Republican Party's 2024 platform removed previous language condemning same-sex marriage at Trump's direction, devoting only brief attention to the issue. However, Sears and other advocates view this change with caution rather than celebration.
"There are still those who are very committed to a faith-based morality that excludes LGBTQ people, and we're seeing that play out with ferocious anti-transgender policies," Sears said. "There are those who do not believe transgender people exist, and they are trying to enforce that."
Data shows increased Republican support for restrictive bathroom bills and other measures targeting transgender people, even as support for same-sex marriage has stabilized across party lines.
The Williams Institute continues its research mission amid this uncertain legal landscape. Sears, the institute's founding executive director, emphasized the importance of data-driven policy advocacy.
"The role of the Williams Institute is to continue to do research so that laws and policies reflect the realities of LGBTQ people's daily lives, not the assertions and myths that are made up about them," he said.
LGBTQ+ advocacy organizations maintain extensive social support networks and legal protections in many states that did not exist before Obergefell. These foundations provide some stability even as federal protections face potential challenges.
"The incredible amount of social support that LGBTQ communities have built over the past few decades remains, as well as legal protections in many states that did not exist even a few years ago," Sears said.
The trajectory of transgender rights may follow a similar path to the marriage equality movement, according to Sears. Increased visibility and public discussion could lead to greater acceptance over time.
"The backlash against same-sex marriage created a national discussion, and then it became a political possibility," he said. "Visibility increased, and our rights increased. I'm hoping we're on the same trajectory for transgender people."
However, current political realities present immediate challenges for LGBTQ+ communities across the country. "There's a lot of negative policy being developed toward LGBTQ people in the country today, and it's easy to get discouraged by that," Sears said. "Still, LGBTQ communities have survived some difficult times, and many courts are demonstrating that there is still a role for research and the rule of law."
Currently, 31 states maintain statutes or constitutional amendments that ban same-sex marriage, according to a Williams Institute report released last month. These laws remain dormant under federal protection but would immediately take effect if the Supreme Court overturns Obergefell.
