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The U.S. could experience negative net migration for the first time in half a century due to President Donald Trump's comprehensive immigration crackdown, according to a Washington Post analysis. Economists warn this reversal could significantly impact economic growth, increase inflation, and create widespread labor shortages.
Brookings Institution economists project that Trump's immigration policies will reduce 2025 GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points, costing the economy $30 to $110 billion. Deutsche Bank warns immigration has collapsed down more than 90% compared to the run rate of previous years, equivalent to a slowing in labour force growth of more than 2 million people.
ICE agents arrested 1,270 undocumented immigrants on worksites during the first 100 days of the administration, according to The Washington Post. "Recent immigration enforcement raids are creating serious challenges for local economies and industries that depend on immigrant labor," said Rebecca Shi, CEO of American Business Immigration Coalition.
A Littler survey found 75% of executives consider immigration policies among their top concerns, with 70% expecting significant workplace impacts over the next 12 months.
Undocumented immigrants comprise 4-5% of the total U.S. workforce but 15-20% in agriculture, food processing, and construction, according to Goldman Sachs. The Agriculture Department estimates 40% of the nation's 2.4 million farmworkers lack legal status.
The United Farm Workers union has warned that the agriculture industry in this country could disappear if enforcement continues. Construction faces similar threats.
The administration's targeting of international students threatens a $43.8 billion economic contribution. During 2023-24, 1.1 million international students supported 378,175 jobs across multiple sectors, according to NAFSA data.
The Harvard visa ban alone could cost $180 million to the local economy, per Implan analysis. This represents just one institution among thousands facing similar restrictions.
Tax revenue losses are substantial: undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022, contributing $25.7 billion to Social Security and $6.4 billion to Medicare.
The Peterson Institute estimates the U.S. economy could shrink 1.2% by 2028 if 1.3 million people are deported. GDP could fall 7.4% if all 8.3 million undocumented workers are removed.
The White House maintains that over 10% of young adults are neither employed nor in education, arguing there's "no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force," according to spokesman Kush Desai.
