What to expect in Tennessee's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Candidates for federal and state legislative posts will compete for their parties’ nominations in Thursday’s primaries in Tennessee. Among the notable current or aspiring lawmakers on the ballot are a member of the conservative U.S. House Freedom Caucus who's drawn a strong primary challenge and a Democratic state representative who was almost expelled from office following a demonstration in the chamber on gun control.

In the 5th Congressional District, Rep. Andy Ogles seeks a second term. Since his election in 2022, Ogles has been a vocal critic of the Biden administration and last year filed articles to impeach President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He filed new articles to impeach Harris after she became the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination following Biden’s exit from the 2024 race.

In his first days in Congress, he was part of a group of Republicans who prolonged the race for House speaker by voting against Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California 11 times before eventually supporting him, though he later voted against the effort to oust McCarthy.

Ogles has faced several controversies since first seeking this seat two years ago. His record of late property tax payments became an issue in that campaign, but he ultimately won a crowded nine-way primary and went on to win the general election in the redrawn Nashville-area district. He was accused by a local news station of embellishing his resume and apologized for misstating his academic credentials. He also was the subject of an ethics complaint over his personal and campaign finances.

His Republican primary opponent is Courtney Johnston, a councilwoman for the metro Nashville area. Johnston is running on a similar issue portfolio as Ogles, including securing the border and reining in big government, but has described the incumbent as a “do-nothing grandstander” who is “mired in scandals.”

Johnston has outraised Ogles in campaign contributions, although Ogles had slightly more in the bank as of mid-July. Backing Johnston’s bid are prominent Tennessee Republicans such as former U.S. Sens. Bill Frist and Bob Corker and former Gov. Bill Haslam, while national party heavyweights such as ex-President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson support Ogles. Bill Hagerty, the state’s junior U.S. senator, also backs Ogles.

The winner will face Democrat Maryam Abolfazli in the Nashville-area district.

The state’s senior U.S. senator, Marsha Blackburn, also seeks a second term and is the favorite in the Republican primary over Tres Wittum, a former state Senate policy analyst who placed last in the 5th Congressional District primary in 2022 against Ogles.

Among the candidates in the Democratic primary is state Rep. Gloria Johnson, who made national headlines in 2023 when the Republican-controlled state House tried to expel her and two colleagues for their role in a gun control protest on the House floor following a school shooting in Nashville. Her colleagues, state Reps. Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, were both expelled, while Johnson was spared by a one-vote margin. Johnson is simultaneously running for both Blackburn’s U.S. Senate seat as well as her own state House seat. Republicans considered changing state law to prohibit dual runs, but the proposed legislation stalled.

Also seeking the Democratic nomination are Memphis community activist Marquita Bradshaw, the 2020 U.S. Senate nominee who lost to Hagerty by a wide margin, Lola Denise Brown and Civil Miller-Watkins.

In the state legislature, about half of the state’s 33 Senate seats and all 99 House seats are up for election this year. Republicans enjoy supermajorities in both chambers.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Thursday:

Tennessee’s state primaries will be held Thursday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. The state is in both the Eastern and the Central time zones, but all counties coordinate their voting to conclude at the same.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House and state legislature.

Tennessee does not register voters by party, which in other states usually means that any registered voter may choose to vote in any party’s primary. However, a 2023 law requires local elections officials to post signs at polling places that it’s illegal to vote in a party’s primary without being a “bona fide” member or “affiliated with” that party, referring to a 1972 state law. The laws are being challenged in court.

The key counties in statewide elections are Shelby, Davidson and Knox, which are home to the population centers of Memphis, Nashville and Knoxville, respectively. In recent statewide elections, candidates from both major political parties won their primaries by posting a large margin in one of the three counties and losing the other two narrowly while also winning the bulk of the state’s rural areas. Gov. Bill Lee won his Republican primary in 2018 by posting a big win in Davidson, while his opponents split Shelby and Knox. Hagerty won his 2020 primary carrying Shelby by a large margin and losing Knox, Davidson and Hamilton, home to Chattanooga. Bradshaw won her Democratic primary that year posting a big win in Shelby and narrow losses in Davidson and Knox.

Davidson County and metro Nashville also play a key role in the 5th Congressional District. It makes up almost half of the district’s population, while Williamson and Wilson counties comprise about 19% and 15% of its population, respectively.

Republicans redrew the state’s congressional districts to their advantage after the last census, splitting the heavily Democratic Nashville area into three seats and forcing Nashville’s then-Democratic congressman, Jim Cooper, into retirement. Voters in the current 5th District gave Trump about 55% of the vote in both the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In Tennessee, recounts are held only as part of a legal challenge in the courts. There are no automatic recounts, and losing candidates cannot request recounts. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of December 2023, there were nearly 4.6 million registered voters in Tennessee.

In the 2022 primaries, turnout was 6% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 11% in the Republican primary. About 54% of voters in that election cast their ballots before primary day.

As of Saturday, a total of 353,774 ballots had been cast before primary day, about 34% in the Democratic primary and 64% in the Republican primary.

In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:45 a.m. ET with about 99.7 % of total votes counted.

As of Thursday, there will be 96 days until the November general election.

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This story has been corrected to show the junior senator’s surname is Hagerty, not Haggerty.

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