Today: March 02, 2024
Today: March 02, 2024

Yes, Trump can win the 2024 election. Here are four reasons why

Share This
Yes, Trump can win the 2024 election. Here are four reasons why
Reuters
James Oliphant
December 12, 2023

By James Oliphant

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - He has been impeached twice, tried to thwart the peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 presidential election, faces scores of charges in multiple criminal cases, and his critics warn he is plotting to rule as an autocrat. Yet, Donald Trump could still return to the White House.

Trump leads his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination by nearly 50 percentage points in national opinion polls, a remarkable comeback for a one-term president who three years ago appeared vanquished and humiliated.

Here are four reasons why Trump could win the November 2024 election against Democratic incumbent Joe Biden:

UNHAPPY VOTERS

The Biden White House argues the economy is in good shape, with unemployment down to a near-historic low of 3.9% from 6.3% when Trump left office and inflation cooling from a peak over 9% in June 2022 to 3.2% as of October.

Large swaths of the public, including many voters of color and young voters, believe otherwise. They point to wages not keeping pace with the costs of essential goods and services such as groceries, cars, houses, child and elder care.

When Biden talks about the economy, Americans think about affordability, not economic indicators. Opinion polls show that voters by a large margin view Republicans as better stewards of the economy, even though Trump has offered only vague proposals.

SPEAKING TO FEAR

Voters are unsettled for reasons that extend far beyond the economy. Trump speaks to the worries, real or not, that many white Americans have in a country that is becoming increasingly diverse and more culturally progressive.

There is also a pervasive sense of losing ground, that the cornerstones of American life - home ownership, a decent wage that keeps pace with inflation, a college education - are becoming more out of reach for many. Polls show voters are worried about crime and nervous about the flow of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.

Trump is adept at channeling and packaging those fears, while still presenting himself as someone who comes from outside the U.S. political system. He is both arsonist and firefighter, who declares the country is in chaos and then offers himself as a savior.

TRUMP'S ACTIONS NOT DISQUALIFYING FOR MANY VOTERS

While critics within his own party, the Democratic Party and the media view him as unfit for office, millions of voters disagree.

Instead, many of his supporters have become convinced that Trump is a victim of a political witch hunt. At least half of Republicans surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos earlier this year said they would have no problem voting for Trump even if he were convicted of a crime.

Trump can also point to his four years in office and argue that the machinery of government largely functioned, if at times chaotically, despite fears he could not govern and that the worst allegations about him - such as his colluding with Russia - were never proven.

BIDEN GETS ALL THE BLAME, NO CREDIT

Trump can also take advantage of a White House that, so far, has been unable to persuade much of the public that Biden’s job-creation policies - through heavy government investment in infrastructure, clean energy and chip manufacturing - have made a difference to their lives.

Biden also has been saddled with a pair of foreign wars that have divided Americans. Trump’s non-interventionist, "America first" message may resonate with voters fearful of further U.S. involvement in Ukraine or Israel while Biden maintains a more traditional, interventionist American foreign policy.

None of this, of course, means Trump is certain to win the election.

He remains deeply unpopular in many parts of the country and among many demographics, and if he is chosen as his party's nominee it could provoke a high turnout in favor of Democrats to counter him.

His inflammatory rhetoric, including threats to take revenge on political enemies he denounces as "vermin," could also be a turn-off for more moderate Republicans and independent voters, who he will need to beat Biden.

Democrats have also successfully campaigned as defenders of abortion rights to defeat Republicans across the country in a series of elections and will again make that issue central to their 2024 campaign.

But at this moment, 11 months from Election Day, Trump stands a better chance of returning to the White House than at any point since he left office.

(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Ross Colvin and Daniel Wallis)

Popular

Two buildings damaged, people evacuated after 'incident' in Russia's St Petersburg, governor says

ST PETERSBURG (Reuters) - Two buildings were damaged and people were evacuated in Russia's St Petersburg on Saturday morning after local residents reported a loud explosion that blew out windows.

Oregon lawmakers pass bill to recriminalize drug possession

The Oregon Legislature has passed a bill that recriminalizes the possession of small amounts of drugs

Powerful storm in California and Nevada shuts interstate and dumps snow on mountains

A powerful blizzard is dumping snow in the Sierra Nevada as gusty winds and heavy rain hit lower elevations

Last surviving member of the first team to conquer Mount Everest says it is crowded and dirty now

The only surviving member of the mountaineering expedition that first conquered Mount Everest says the world’s highest peak is too crowded and too dirty and the mountain is a god that needs to be respected

A party like no other? Asia's richest man celebrates son's prenuptials with a star-studded bash

Tycoons from around the world, heads of state, as well as Hollywood and Bollywood stars have descended on the small western Indian city of Jamnagar where billionaire industrialist Mukesh Ambani is kickstarting a big fat wedding celebration for his youngest son

Haruki Murakami unveils his new short story at a Tokyo literary event

Only 1,100 lucky audience members were there to hear the yet-to-be published short story “Kaho,” read aloud by bestselling Japanese author Haruki Murakami himself

Related

A New Jersey city that limited street parking hasn’t had a traffic death in 7 years

Hoboken, New Jersey, recently marked seven consecutive years without a traffic death

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton beat impeachment. Now he wants Super Tuesday revenge on his foes

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton beat impeachment, and now he wants political revenge

Alaska's Iditarod dogs get neon visibility harnesses after 5 were fatally hit while training

The Iditarod, the annual sled dog race celebrating Alaska’s official state sport, is set to get underway Saturday with a new focus on safety after five dogs died and eight were injured in collisions with snowmobiles while training

Peace, music and memories: As the 1960s fade, historians scramble to capture Woodstock's voices

An estimated 450,000 people attended the Woodstock festival in August 1969

- Advertisement -
Advertisement: Limited Time Offer